nassim nicholas taleb's fooled by randomness

On the other hand there is the Tragic Vision of humankind that believes in the existence of inherent limitations and flaws in the way we think and act and requires an acknowledgment of this fact as a basis for any individual and collective action. Basically this category would include those who think that the cure for obesity is to inform people that they should be healthy. They believe in reason and rationality-that we should overcome cultural impediments on our way to becoming a better human race-thinking we can control our nature at will and transform it by mere edict in order to attain, among other things, happiness and rationality. Our mind is not equipped with the adequate machinery to handle probabilities such infirmity even strikes the expert, sometimes just the expert.

PrologueĪt the cost of appearing biased, I have to say that the literary mind can be intentionally prone to the confusion between noise and meaning, that is, between a randomly constructed arrangement and a precisely intended message. And, make up reasons and patterns for their success even though it was largely random. Because of hindsight bias, survivorship bias – we forget people who failed, remember only the few who succeed. Wild success is attributable to variance. Mild success can be explained by skills and labor. Randomness, (chance, luck) influences our lives and work more than we realize. This is not a complete summary of the book. Now it can do the same for you.Note: These are notes I’ve highlighted in the book, that I can go back to for re-reading.

A Financial Times book of the year, this irreverent bestseller has shattered the illusions of people around the world by teaching them how to recognize randomness. It is only because we fail to understand probability that we continue to believe events are non-random, finding reasons where none exist. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the markets - we hear an entrepreneur has 'vision' or a trader is 'talented', but all too often their performance is down to chance rather than skill. It is all about luck- more precisely, how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others? Is it really down to skill and strategy - or something altogether more unpredictable? This book is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world.

From the author of international bestseller The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Fooled by Randomness is the bestselling account of the hidden role of chance in life and the markets.

Nassim nicholas taleb's fooled by randomness